Click here to obtain original Excel predictions spreadsheet – 2010-2002 predictions .
With the new year comes the analysis of the predictions made by 8 intrepid prognosticators in the course of 2010, and an opportunity to add your own predictions for 2011. Read further for details.
|Predictions for 31st December 2010 made via email in April 2010|
|Stephen van Jaarsveldt||0.48||30500||11800||5800||1350||7.15||95|
|Name||Prediction 1||Prediction 2||Prediction 3||Prediction 4||Prediction 5||Prediction 6||Prediction 7|
|Mike Cross||SA last in WC pool||Water restrictions lifted in J Bay||Mugabe is history||Sea level rises 3mm||Another Zuma sexual or child scandal|
|Ron Weissenberg||Soccer World Cup – a damp squid. Lots of hype, no material contribution to economy or national pride.||Greater awareness of a shifting of the age – 21st December 2012, People start discussing preparations and making plans for the ‘end’||Racial tensions in RSA increase.||First Right-Wing white SA backlash – an attack, bomb explosion..blacks are murdered by white moderates.||Robert Mugabe dies or is very ill and unable to lead||US economy shows strong recovery.|
|Janette Eldridge||Unnatural death of at least one visitor during World Cup||Theft of at least one WC player’s possessions||FIFA declares SA 2010 WC a success||Plane crash enquiry into cause being linked to volcano ash||Zuma/ Magabe/ Malema continue to hold present positions||LibSem takes place 2010||US building blown up|
|Jasson Urbach||Bulls will beat the Stormers||A non-SA male will win Comrades Marathon||SA will come last in Group A in soccer WC||Comp Com will find ACSA guilty of anti-competitive behaviour||More doctors will leave SA as uncertainty over NHI increases||At the MTBPS: The introduction of a new tax will be suggested||A generics manufacturer will pull out of SA as calls for state-manufacturing increase|
|Trevor Watkins||Major negative incident during WC||Tripartite alliance splits||Mugabe dead||Xenophobic violence recurs in SA||EU threatened by sovereign debt crisis||US inflation rises to 20%||Political turmoil in China|
|Jan Barnard||Heavy floods in EC||DA wins some local elections|
|Leon Louw||Greece bankruptcy to be followed by another, perhaps Portugal, and non-recovery from meltdown||slow disappearance of COPE||continuing failure by DA to implement any pro-liberty or pro-market reforms in the local governments and the province it controls||severe post-World Cup withdrawal symptoms (losses, layoffs etc) for many SA business||at least one serious strike during or immediately before World Cup|
|Name||Nett=Correct-wrong predictions||Mandela alive||Conspiracy revealed||SA 2nd round in WC||WC winning team||British election winner|
|Stephen van Jaarsveldt||(2)=1-3||no||yes||Germany||Cameron|
|Actual||5||Yes||Yes (wikileaks)||No||Spain||Cameron /Clegg|
Despite a turbulent year in world economic markets, things were pretty much the same at the end of 2010 as they were at the start. Those predicting little change seemed to do best, and my own wildly optimistic predictions turned out to be just that. Many of the verbal predictions seemed to betray the predictor’s hopes and fears, rather than a reasoned look into the future. Perhaps this year will be better?
For the non-numeric predictions, I calculated a Nett correct figure, which is the correct predictions minus the incorrect ones. Can’t really allocate a winner here as people offered varying numbers of predictions, of varying quality, although Jasson Urbach and Janette Eldridge seemed to be doing well.
The Average Difference is calculated by subtracting the actual value for an index from your prediction, dividing that by the standard deviation, then averaging across all your predictions. On this basis, Stephen van Jaarsveldt wins on his first outing, followed by Mike Cross and Ron Weissenberg. Well done, Stephen! Our averaged prediction is not too shabby, either, coming in 3rd overall – just goes to show there IS wisdom in the crowd.
If you would like to submit predictions for 2011, add a comment to this article in which you provide estimates for the following indexes as at 31/12/2011, and up to 6 verbal predictions on any subject:
- Gold price
- Oil price
You too could enter the Libertarian Hall of Fame, whose winners currently are:
|2002||Jim Harris||Norman Davis||Andre Heydenrych|
|2003||Bryan Lever||Trevor Watkins||Laurence Caromea|
|2004||Suzanne McGinn||Dylan Watkins||Dougie Shaw|
|2009||Janette Eldridge||Mike Cross||Trevor Watkins|
|2010||Stephen van Jaarsveldt||Mike Cross||Ron Weissenberg|