In August 2012 I finally got round to calculating the 2011 predictions, which I published on this blog and invited readers to submit their predictions for end of 2012, then just 5 months away. Only one person took advantage of this unique opportunity, and he becomes by default the Libsa prediction winner for 2012, and the only person to have won this little competition twice. Congratulations, Stephen Van Jaarsveldt – now officially the libertarian future guru!
Herewith, the official results:
| Predictions for 31st December 2012 made on Libsa website in August 2012 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Average Difference is calculated by subtracting the actual value for an index from your prediction, dividing that by the standard deviation, then averaging across all your predictions.
If you would like to submit predictions for 2013, add a comment to this article in which you provide estimates for the following indexes as at 31/12/2013, and up to 6 verbal predictions on any subject:
- Jse
- Dow
- FTSE
- Gold price
- Rand/Dollar
- Oil price
You too could enter the Libertarian Hall of Fame, whose winners currently are:
| Year | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
| 2002 | Jim Harris | Norman Davis | Andre Heydenrych |
| 2003 | Bryan Lever | Trevor Watkins | Laurence Caromea |
| 2004 | Suzanne McGinn | Dylan Watkins | Dougie Shaw |
| 2009 | Janette Eldridge | Mike Cross | Trevor Watkins |
| 2010 | Stephen van Jaarsveldt | Mike Cross | Ron Weissenberg |
| 2011 | Ron Weissenberg | Stephen van Jaarsveldt | Erich Viedge |
| 2012 | Stephen van Jaarsveldt |
#1 by Charl Heydenrych on January 14, 2013 - 12:55 pm
I’ll let you have the 2013 predictions taken at LIBSOC (9 Jan 2013) Jhb soon.
#2 by Trevor Watkins on January 27, 2013 - 6:04 pm
So, here are my predictions for 2013. Look upon them and tremble!
• The government bond bubble will finally burst, bankrupting states including the US, and launching a second round of deep recession if not depression
• Many pension funds will be wiped out leading to significant middle class hardship
• Populist revolution will continue across South Africa, leading to ever harsher repression, but no significant change in disastrous government policies
• Zuma will continue to consolidate power for the members of his gang at the expense of the rest of the country, making a coup-d’etat inevitable at some future point.
• The United States will suffer a major natural disaster.
• Mandela and Mugabe will not see Christmas.
• For most people I know, life will continue, a little harder, a little poorer, but actually pretty good most of the time.
JSE 40,000
Dow 13,000
FTSE 5,000
R/$ 9.50
Gold $3,500
Oil $90
#3 by Trevor Watkins on January 27, 2013 - 6:08 pm
Frances Kendall said she disagreed with all my predictions, so I guess these are hers:
• The government bond bubble will not burst, states including the US will not be bankrupted, and there will not be a second round of deep recession if not depression
• Many pension funds will not be wiped out
• Populist revolution will not continue across South Africa,
• Zuma will not continue to consolidate power for the members of his gang at the expense of the rest of the country. A coup-d’etat is not inevitable at some future point.
• The United States will not suffer a major natural disaster.
• Mandela and Mugabe will see Christmas.
•
#4 by Trevor Watkins on January 27, 2013 - 6:13 pm
Mike Cross made the following predictions via email
As I get older, I realise that events and predictions to come for the upcoming year seem to take an awful lot longer to take place than the hype, panic, urgent predictions that one sees all over the web suggest. Economic collapses predicted a couple of years ago haven’t materialised, Iran hasn’t happened, US Marshal law hasn’t happened, and a myriad other similar events haven’t either, although to read some of the tripe, these events are always imminent or just breaking. Therefore, my counter predictions to yours:
· The bond bubble will not burst this year.
· Pension funds will not be wiped out (this year at least).
· Mandela and Mugabe will continue to live
o No war / air strikes in Iran
o The economic bubble will not burst
§ The US$ will not be deposed. it’s inevitable that there will eventually be some form of global currency
§ JSE all share index will close above 40,000
§ Fuel prices will continue to rise
§ Staple food price increases will far exceed inflation
o There will be an extremely destructive solar flare knocking out power grids in major areas
o Aliens will not be revealed