2012 Predictions


In August 2012 I finally got round to calculating the 2011 predictions, which I published on this blog and invited readers to submit their predictions for end of 2012, then just 5 months away. Only one person took advantage of this unique opportunity, and he becomes by default the Libsa prediction winner for 2012, and the only person to have won this little competition twice. Congratulations, Stephen Van Jaarsveldt – now officially the libertarian future guru!

Herewith, the official results:

Predictions for 31st December 2012 made on Libsa website in August 2012
Average Difference Nett=Correct predictions JSE DOW FTSE Gold R/$ Oil/barrel
Name
Stephen Van Jaarsveldt .137 1 35915 13450 5963 1628 8.41 114
Actual 0.00 40248 13390 5700 1656 8.58 113
 
Stephen Van Jaarsveldt
1 The world will not come to an end in Dec 2012 as predicted by the Maya.

 

The Average Difference is calculated by subtracting the actual value for an index from your prediction, dividing that by the standard deviation, then averaging across all your predictions.

If you would like to submit predictions for  2013, add a comment to this article in which you provide estimates for the following indexes as at 31/12/2013, and up to 6 verbal predictions on any subject:

  1. Jse
  2. Dow
  3. FTSE
  4. Gold price
  5. Rand/Dollar
  6. Oil price

You too could enter the Libertarian Hall of Fame, whose winners currently are:

Year 1st 2nd 3rd
2002 Jim Harris Norman Davis Andre Heydenrych
2003 Bryan Lever Trevor Watkins Laurence Caromea
2004 Suzanne McGinn Dylan Watkins Dougie Shaw
2009 Janette Eldridge Mike Cross Trevor Watkins
2010 Stephen van Jaarsveldt Mike Cross Ron Weissenberg
2011 Ron Weissenberg Stephen van Jaarsveldt Erich Viedge
2012 Stephen van Jaarsveldt
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  1. #1 by Charl Heydenrych on January 14, 2013 - 12:55 pm

    I’ll let you have the 2013 predictions taken at LIBSOC (9 Jan 2013) Jhb soon.

  2. #2 by Trevor Watkins on January 27, 2013 - 6:04 pm

    So, here are my predictions for 2013. Look upon them and tremble!
    • The government bond bubble will finally burst, bankrupting states including the US, and launching a second round of deep recession if not depression
    • Many pension funds will be wiped out leading to significant middle class hardship
    • Populist revolution will continue across South Africa, leading to ever harsher repression, but no significant change in disastrous government policies
    • Zuma will continue to consolidate power for the members of his gang at the expense of the rest of the country, making a coup-d’etat inevitable at some future point.
    • The United States will suffer a major natural disaster.
    • Mandela and Mugabe will not see Christmas.
    • For most people I know, life will continue, a little harder, a little poorer, but actually pretty good most of the time.

    JSE 40,000
    Dow 13,000
    FTSE 5,000
    R/$ 9.50
    Gold $3,500
    Oil $90

  3. #3 by Trevor Watkins on January 27, 2013 - 6:08 pm

    Frances Kendall said she disagreed with all my predictions, so I guess these are hers:

    • The government bond bubble will not burst, states including the US will not be bankrupted, and there will not be a second round of deep recession if not depression
    • Many pension funds will not be wiped out
    • Populist revolution will not continue across South Africa,
    • Zuma will not continue to consolidate power for the members of his gang at the expense of the rest of the country. A coup-d’etat is not inevitable at some future point.
    • The United States will not suffer a major natural disaster.
    • Mandela and Mugabe will see Christmas.

  4. #4 by Trevor Watkins on January 27, 2013 - 6:13 pm

    Mike Cross made the following predictions via email

    As I get older, I realise that events and predictions to come for the upcoming year seem to take an awful lot longer to take place than the hype, panic, urgent predictions that one sees all over the web suggest. Economic collapses predicted a couple of years ago haven’t materialised, Iran hasn’t happened, US Marshal law hasn’t happened, and a myriad other similar events haven’t either, although to read some of the tripe, these events are always imminent or just breaking. Therefore, my counter predictions to yours:

    · The bond bubble will not burst this year.

    · Pension funds will not be wiped out (this year at least).

    · Mandela and Mugabe will continue to live

    o No war / air strikes in Iran

    o The economic bubble will not burst

    § The US$ will not be deposed. it’s inevitable that there will eventually be some form of global currency

    § JSE all share index will close above 40,000

    § Fuel prices will continue to rise

    § Staple food price increases will far exceed inflation

    o There will be an extremely destructive solar flare knocking out power grids in major areas

    o Aliens will not be revealed

  5. #5 by Sasha M HitchnerSasha Hitchner on January 29, 2013 - 3:33 am

    And from the peanut gallery –

    * I know nothing about money/shares and predictions of this nature – so I will go with Trevor on the share index. Sounds right.

    * The ground water is warm, here where I live, even if you water the garden for longer than it takes to drain the “hot” water out of the hosepipe. I am awake most nights these days from 12 to about 4 a.m. (after 4 a.m. it is morning and the miracle of being awake in the middle of the night becomes the miracle of having survived to live other day). I feel the breathe of G-d upon the wind. My dogs sense it too, and I will go with them on the urgency of things, and with Trevor on the destructive solar flares that will render our beloved Internet useless for periods of time, from time to time. John Galt will turn the lights off at some point. In another time, way beyond 2013, they will be taking bus tours to New York to marvel at the sky scrapers, and wonder how man could have built them – and come up with aliens as the possibility for their existence. So, I will say: we will discover that we are the aliens.

    * Individuality will be a luxury. We will become more collective, banding together in family/close friend units to share resources to enable us to survive because, yes, prices will rise, farmers will fail to win the fight (the elements and the rising costs) to maintain their farms. We will be buying seeds that are not genetically modified, and if there are shares in the business of that, then those shares will become valuable. We will become gardeners – and you know what that means – “gardening, gardening, gardening – death.” [Dylan Moran]

    * Uprisings will increase. Violence will be harnessed for profit. Gangs will gather momentum and do unspeakable things. We will begin to think of the value of weapons to protect ourselves. Government will be as useful as the US mail – used by some, ignored by most. Good men will do other things and not bother to stand for any party. Cage fighting and dog fighting will increase. Tik addicts will become the most feared.

    [Just as a matter of interest on the drug scene - unscientifically proven thought gleaned from my work in townships - the local police, at least here, have just about wiped out the weed growers - the hippie kids who grow "the good stuff" . I know this because I have used it for pain management - works fabulously well, if used for this purpose, and not for recreational purposes. My source says that these farmers have all been arrested/shut down, but the police turn a blind eye to TIK (dirty Speed for the uninformed) and other drugs. Street weed is still available, but users I know are very careful when buying it because they get arrested easily. Weed is not tolerated at all - much like alcohol. TIK, on the otherhand, which causes the addict to become strong and able, and if a fix cannot be found, such an addict will have the strength, and the will, to kill for the next fix. So, I think, TIK will continue to be the cheap available drug that keeps the hopeless going, until it kills him/her, and, I think, the new drug, Ubunga, (I believe it is called), will be just as cheap and available because it does exactly the opposite. It depresses and reduces energy. But not in a good way. Not like weed. Perhaps this a government project to calm TIK addicts down some. But I am told that its a very bad drug and it "makes people crazy in the head." A hitch hiker I picked up coming from Cape Town so informed me. TIK is the new tupperware. You buy some and cut it up and sell it at parties. I have heard from a young person here in town: "Just about everyone I know is on TIK!" And, we are speaking of white young adults here, not township kids. I am still learning about all this drug stuff. I only smoked weed after I turned 60 and the few puffs I had took away my migraine headaches completely - and - bonus - I was able to dance again, for a bit. But, do watch your children... ]

    * Those who pray with sincerity will do battle in the spiritual realm like never before.

    * We will invest more heavily in our grandchildren, for they will have to face the future, which sure isn’t what it used to be; and, no matter how true a capitalist we are, love is our only asset. We will love more, significantly, and if we have enough lovers of Man, a critical mass of love, then … all will be well. We will overcome, but not without a great loss of life. It is written (har har) that the hearts of man will fail, that it will become so difficult to hold onto our love that even the elect will faint with fear and weariness; but, to those who hold fast to that which is good … spinnach and feta will be served in ala-mamma kitchens all over the world.

    I wish you all love. Love like a dog. Be fierce in your love.

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